First step toward two-party system

My opinion of this week(545):

The new Fukuda Cabinet has got a very high popular vote like 56% in recent several news paper research. It is surely a kind of complementary popular vote to be observed in any new born cabinets. But it seems that this is the result of a good fight by Tarou Asou who run against Yasuo Fukuda in LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) presidential election last week.

Tarou Asou got a strong support from local party members and non-partisan independent voters during election campaign. If Tarou Asou did not run for the election, the election itself might have been very indifferent and unconcerned one. The birth of new cabinet head by Yasuo Fukuda could not draw so much interest from general public. It is a kind of very cynical phenomenon as far as my view is concerned, although it is just my personal view by itself.

Leaders of LDP and Fukuda cabinet members welcomed this high popular vote against their cabinet, but I wonder how long this high popular vote will last from now on. It depends on how new Fukuda cabinet achieve their jobs which they promise to do for Japanese people. The diet debate has not been made for almost two months since LDP's historical defeat in House of Council election on July 29. People are looking forward to hearing a heated debate between ruling LDP and opposing DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan). Whether Fukuda Cabinet can maintain this high popular vote or not, depends on the result of the diet discussion which starts next week.

Prime Minister Fukuda called his cabinet "ragged edge cabinet" which stands at a edge of a cliff. Most of leaders of LDP repeatedly express a sense of crisis of their party in the present political situation. They all talk about the necessity to work with opposing front in many occasions. But it seems that they still underestimate the fact that they have lost a majority vote at the House of Councils.

One of the most important bill in diet session which starts from now is "Anti Terrorism Law" which expires on early November. Fukuda Cabinet and ruling fronts will continue to make oil supply to multi national navies at Indian Ocean because they say it is very necessary contribution of Japan expected by international communities. Opposition front including DPJ are against the bill for the oil supply does not really help to reduce terrorism at Afghanistan. There must be some other ways to attain the purpose.

Fukuda Cabinet and ruling fronts seem to give up to extend the law because time is up due to their slow action and they plan to submit a new law which make it possible to resume oil supply to multi national navies as soon as possible. They intend to pass this new law regardless the fact that the bill would be refused at the House of Councils. The ruling front bring the bill back to the House of Representative and let the bill pass the bill by two third of affirmative vote by LDP and Komeitou Party. It is very possible physically. But the big question remains whether or not it is really possible politically.

It involves very basic question on exercise of the right of collective self-defense which is prohibited by the present article of constitution. The ruling fronts say it is not the exercise of the right of collective self-defense. But opposition fronts will strongly insist it is exactly to the infringement of the principle of the constitution.

Any of such arguments at the diet were made at the diet without showing some very basic facts related with oil supply. Under the new circumstance at upper house, opposition front will ask Fukuda Cabinet to supply various facts involved with oil supply operation because they have now the right to ask to present all sort of information about national political issues.

Many of new facts which have never been disclosed before in front Japanese people will be presented at diet discussion. Majority of affirmative views on the bill may change if some of those new facts are disclosed at the diet. There are a great doubt about the fact that oil supplied at Indian Ocean to US navy might have been used for Iraq war.

Provided that such fact were disclosed, there were great change on the present political situation including popular vote against ruling and opposition front.

Another strong strategic measures for opposition front is the submission of various bills at the House of Councils. DPJ has been criticized in many occasions in the past. Whenever they are against bills submitted by ruling front, they are said that they just oppose to anything without having any counter measures at all. Contrary to this situation, DPJ and opposition front can present any bills and be able to pass them at the House of Councils under the present circumstance.

In coming diet session, DPJ is scheduled to present some very important bills such as unification of pension system bill, bill to prohibit diversion of pension fees for other propose and so on. Pension issues are still remains number one concerns for people of Japan and this will draw a big interest once the debate start at coming diet session.

As I stated above already, ruling front still seem to underestimate the situation that this kind of new political process will start in coming diet session. I do hope that such process will become the first step to establish two-party system in Japan which is definitely necessary to develop democracy in this country.

2007/9/29
Tadashi HAYASE